Update

So, yes, the forthcoming election has kept me rather busy, hence the lack of new posts this week. It's a tragedy, but life progresses nonetheless.

In place of actual news items, I'm offering my prognostications on the forthcoming election. Cherish and wait to see how they turn out . . .

At the federal level:

The overwhelming trend in the punditry is towards predicting an almost Democratic victory in the House with some chance of a Senate swing. Tradesports has the Republicans down to about a 1 in 4 chance of keeping the House. This is ridiculously low. Yes, Republicans are facing many hard races this cycle. Democrats have certainly gained from the multitude of resignations-the Foley, Ney, and DeLay districts, to mention a few, favor challengers. However, the special election to replace the Dukester in North County San Diego shows that while these replacement races are close, they can still end favorably for the Republican side. In terms of the general climate, there are many close races across the country. However, any swings in momentum will preserve numerous incumbents. My prediction? The punditry has good reasons to favor a Democrat takeover in the House, but I'd put my money on a GOP retention. Blessed are the cartographers . . . As far as the Senate, without a gripping new issue, the bar is too high for the Democrats here. It won't happen. Period. In '08, if things don't change, maybe. But not this year.

Here in Cali:

Nothing much will change in terms of federal and state legislative districts. One or two marginal districts, perhaps. But nothing of any real importance-Republicans will still have a 1/3rd or greater minority which gives them input on the budget, and that's really the only key question in this state.

As far as statewide offices, Schwarzenegger is a shoo-in for re-election. Tradesports' ask was something like 99 for a payout of 100 on the guv. Sorry Phil, this race is over. The most interesting election is for Lt. Governor, with a close race. My money is on Garamendi though. Lockyer almost certainly has Treasurer sown up. Chiang will probably take Controller, although that race will be a bit closer. Poizner will probably trounce Cruz for Insurance Commissioner. Secretary of State is a toss-up, while Attorney General almost certainly goes to Brown as well. The result? Republicans will probably move from 2 constitutional offices to 3, although as many as 5 are possible.

For the ballot measures . . .

Propositions 1A-1E: Pretty much in the bag. 1C may have some troubles, but at least three of the five here will pass. These bonds are popular and will get needed things built. Voters are sympathetic to this.

Proposition 83: Regardless of the flaws it may have, expect a 70% or more Yes vote.

Proposition 84: Running behind the 1A-1E package. Voters like parks, but it's not part of the official package and is further down the ballot. 50-50 chances.

Proposition 85: Very close-I'm thinking No, but lukewarm Democratic turnover could put it over the top.

Propositions 86, 87, and 88: After voting for bonds, voters will not be in the mood for new taxes. 86 has the best chance, but 87 and 88 are basically dead in the water.

Proposition 89: Voters have not been supportive of campaign reform in the past. Don't expect this to change in '06.

Proposition 90: Probably the most interesting question in California for 2006. If voters have enough energy at the end of the ballot to read down to the fiscal impact summary, it will fail. If they're tired of voting and want to vote No on everything at certain point (esp. following 86-89), it will fail. If they only read the part about eminent domain . . . it will pass.