More zombie props?

The campaign forces behind Propositions 86 (tobacco taxes) and Proposition 90 (eminent domain/regulatory takings/etc.) have vowed to return again. They are apparently undaunted by the experience of the parental notification campaign-after Proposition 73 failed in 2005, they gave it another shot in 2006, producing Proposition 85. And it failed again. I don't see any reason to believe how either of these Propositions would fare better the next time around, outside of radically reducing their respective scope. Full story

Update

So, yes, the forthcoming election has kept me rather busy, hence the lack of new posts this week. It's a tragedy, but life progresses nonetheless.

In place of actual news items, I'm offering my prognostications on the forthcoming election. Cherish and wait to see how they turn out . . .

At the federal level:

The overwhelming trend in the punditry is towards predicting an almost Democratic victory in the House with some chance of a Senate swing. Tradesports has the Republicans down to about a 1 in 4 chance of keeping the House. This is ridiculously low. Yes, Republicans are facing many hard races this cycle. Democrats have certainly gained from the multitude of resignations-the Foley, Ney, and DeLay districts, to mention a few, favor challengers. However, the special election to replace the Dukester in North County San Diego shows that while these replacement races are close, they can still end favorably for the Republican side. In terms of the general climate, there are many close races across the country. However, any swings in momentum will preserve numerous incumbents. My prediction? The punditry has good reasons to favor a Democrat takeover in the House, but I'd put my money on a GOP retention. Blessed are the cartographers . . . As far as the Senate, without a gripping new issue, the bar is too high for the Democrats here. It won't happen. Period. In '08, if things don't change, maybe. But not this year.

Here in Cali:

Nothing much will change in terms of federal and state legislative districts. One or two marginal districts, perhaps. But nothing of any real importance-Republicans will still have a 1/3rd or greater minority which gives them input on the budget, and that's really the only key question in this state.

As far as statewide offices, Schwarzenegger is a shoo-in for re-election. Tradesports' ask was something like 99 for a payout of 100 on the guv. Sorry Phil, this race is over. The most interesting election is for Lt. Governor, with a close race. My money is on Garamendi though. Lockyer almost certainly has Treasurer sown up. Chiang will probably take Controller, although that race will be a bit closer. Poizner will probably trounce Cruz for Insurance Commissioner. Secretary of State is a toss-up, while Attorney General almost certainly goes to Brown as well. The result? Republicans will probably move from 2 constitutional offices to 3, although as many as 5 are possible.

For the ballot measures . . .

Propositions 1A-1E: Pretty much in the bag. 1C may have some troubles, but at least three of the five here will pass. These bonds are popular and will get needed things built. Voters are sympathetic to this.

Proposition 83: Regardless of the flaws it may have, expect a 70% or more Yes vote.

Proposition 84: Running behind the 1A-1E package. Voters like parks, but it's not part of the official package and is further down the ballot. 50-50 chances.

Proposition 85: Very close-I'm thinking No, but lukewarm Democratic turnover could put it over the top.

Propositions 86, 87, and 88: After voting for bonds, voters will not be in the mood for new taxes. 86 has the best chance, but 87 and 88 are basically dead in the water.

Proposition 89: Voters have not been supportive of campaign reform in the past. Don't expect this to change in '06.

Proposition 90: Probably the most interesting question in California for 2006. If voters have enough energy at the end of the ballot to read down to the fiscal impact summary, it will fail. If they're tired of voting and want to vote No on everything at certain point (esp. following 86-89), it will fail. If they only read the part about eminent domain . . . it will pass.

Amusing internal battles

The national NAACP has decided to support Proposition 86, placing it at odds with the California chapter. I suppose they were not thrilled by press coverage revealing that the CA NAACP president, Alice Huffman, has received $100,000 from Philip Morris through her consulting firm, while the NAACP itself had received $75,000 over three years. Full Capitol Weekly story

Skelton on the November ballot

George Skelton offers his wisdom on the fiscal measures on the November ballot. Of the bi-partisan bond package (1B-1E), Skelton says:
"Any Californian who doesn't vote for these bonds might as well just pack up and move to Nevada, Idaho or Mississippi. And business owners should take their jobs and employees with them.
Because soon it's going to be impossible to get to work in urban areas. Freeways will be impassable. Rails impractical. Moreover, public schools will be depressingly overcrowded. Housing unaffordable for the working stiff."
He then proceeds to recommend that voters defeat the interest-group written 84, 87, 88, and 89.
Full story

Voters are not cynical enough

That is the only possible explanation for today's "Money talks" article in the Los Angeles Times. The Times reveals that in fact endorsements for ballot initiatives are often obtained through monetary exchanges, not ideological niceties. One would think that this would have to be the default assumption by now? Full story

Pay to play on the ballot

Dan Walters writes about the continuing practice of "pay-to-play" in the world of ballot initiatives. Full column

Initiatives seek to reign in judges

One of the marquee themes of state ballot initiatives this year, besides eminent domain, are propositions in South Dakota, Montana, Colorado, and Oregon that seek to limit discretion and independence amongst the judiciary and in the case of Oregon makes changes to their selection. Full story

High Turnout=Higher Initative Costs

Voter enthusiasm for Arnold, various ballot fights this year, and the rise in absentee voting will all contribute to an increase in voter turnout in 2006 vs. prior years. This, in turn, will drive up the number of qualifying signatures needed for ballot measures, also raising the cost. Full story